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Zelman & Associates Predict 2019 Growth, Albeit More Modest

January 11, 2019


The latest analysis and forecast from The Z Report predicts a strong 2019 for builders, even with the challenges facing the market.

The Z Report, a bi-monthly report compiled by the research firm Zelman & Associates, expects market fundamentals to remain favorable in 2019 and 2020.

According to The Z Report:

With momentum expected to build through 2019, we continue to underwrite solid growth in single-family starts in 2020, increasing 8% to 990,000, below our prior growth forecast of 11%. We still expect a demographic tailwind, significant pent-up demand and still-favorable absolute levels of affordability. However, the recent choppiness in demand is likely to stall incremental investment in land development, which could limit the future new construction supply on the margin. Importantly, we still expect cyclical upside beyond our explicit forecasts, as our 2020 estimate sits 10-20% below our view of normalized demand.

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