November Home Builder Survey: Momentum Softens
December 30, 2025
The BTIG/HomeSphere State of the Industry Report showed weaker year-over-year trends in November compared to October, signaling continued pressure in the housing market.
In November, 44% of builders reported flat year-over-year order growth, down from 47% in October, while 33% reported lower year-over-year sales, up from 29% last month. Customer traffic remained flat month-over-month, offering little improvement in demand conditions.
After modest improvement in October, business performance relative to expectations deteriorated in November, with both traffic and sales coming in below last month’s levels. Builder commentary suggests November activity was weaker than anticipated.
Pricing remained relatively stable, but incentives increased following October’s brief stabilization, reflecting ongoing efforts to drive demand without broad price cuts.
Bottom line: Market conditions remain challenging. The limited optimism seen in October faded in November as affordability constraints, cautious consumer sentiment, and higher inventory levels continue to pressure demand.
The latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (released December 15, 2025) increased one point to 39.
Highlights from the latest State of the Industry Report
Sales & traffic. Builders reported slightly lower sales and flat traffic trends relative to October. 44% of respondents reported flat year-over-year sales orders growth vs. 47% in October, and 23% saw a year-over-year increase in orders in November, down 1% monthly. 30% of builders reported a decrease in year-over-year traffic vs. 33% last month while 23% saw an increase vs. 24% last month.
Sales & traffic relative to expectations. Business relative to expectations worsened in November compared to October. 17% of respondents saw sales as better than expected (29% in October), and 34% saw sales as worse than expected vs. 27% last month, resulting in a change in the better-minus-worse spread to -17 from 2. For traffic, 19% of builders saw it as better than expected, and 24% saw traffic as worse than expected (a better-minus-worse spread of -5). This compares to 25% better and 29% worse last month (a spread of -4).
Base pricing. The percent of builders who decreased base prices in November compared to October was higher, while the percentage of builders that kept base pricing unchanged decreased to 33% from 44% in October. 18% of builders raised some, most, or all base prices, improving from 13% in October.
Incentives. The percent of builders who increased most/all or some incentives increased to 32% in November from 27% in October, and 25% November 2024. The percent of builders who decreased most/all or some incentives decreased sequentially, while 44% of builders kept incentives unchanged vs. 55% in October.
Regional color / interest-rate drop impact. Most builders across the US spoke of continued weak buyer demand, with many citing seasonality, affordability issues and uncertainty as factors contributing to subdued sales.
HomeSphere/BTIG State of the Industry Report
HomeSphere partners with the global investment bank BTIG to create a monthly report to provide our builders and manufacturers with exclusive and timely insights about the market.
To compile the report, we survey HomeSphere’s 2,700+ regional and local home builders about sales, traffic, pricing, labor costs and other key industry metrics.
How to get the monthly report
If you are a builder and would like to participate and receive the monthly report for free, request an invitation below:
